21 AI experts have predicted the date for four artificial intelligence milestones. Seven predict AIs will achieve Nobel prize-winning performance within 20 years, while five predict that will be accompanied by superhuman intelligence.
One also predicted that in 30 years, “virtually all the intellectual work that is done by trained human beings…can be done by computers for pennies an hour,” adding that AI “is likely to eliminate almost all of today’s decently paying jobs.”
The other milestones are passing a 3rd grade-level test, and passing a Turing test – and the experts estimate the probability that an AI passing a Turing test would result in an outcome that’s bad for humanity…with four estimating that probability was greater than 60%! (Regardless of whether the developer was private, military, or even open source…) Yet interestingly, the experts were skeptical of increased funding, citing misuse and close-mindedness.
“Since these experts are precisely those who would benefit most from increased funding, their skeptical views of the impact of hypothetical massive funding are very likely sincere.”
Artificial Intelligence already handles stock trading, fraud detection, and video games. But when will be have Artificial Intelligence we can talk to — that’s even smarter than we are?