How To Use Twitter To Predict The Future

twitter logo

Researchers Sitaram Asur and Bernardo A. Huberman from HP Labs in Palo Alto, California, have been using Twitter to predict the performance of Hollywood movies at the box office and believe that they can use social media to successfully predict far more:

… this method can be extended to a large panoply of topics, ranging from the future rating of products to agenda setting and election outcomes. At a deeper level, this work shows how social media expresses a collective wisdom which, when properly tapped, can yield an extremely powerful and accurate indicator of future outcomes.

You can download a PDF of their paper here. This is the abstract:

In recent years, social media has become ubiquitous and important for social networking and content sharing. And yet, the content that is generated from these websites remains largely untapped. In this paper, we demonstrate how social media content can be used to predict real-world outcomes. In particular, we use the chatter from Twitter.com to forecast box-office revenues for movies. We show that a simple model built from the rate at which tweets are created about particular topics can outperform market-based predictors. We further demonstrate how sentiments extracted from Twitter can be further utilized to improve the forecasting power of social media.

, ,

21
More in Predictions, Social Media
Cellphone Camera Performs Background Checks on Your ‘Future’ Facebook Friends

Via h+ magazine: A new "Augmented Reality" app uses facial recognition software to instantly match faces viewed through an Android smartphone camera to that person's social network profiles. "Point your...

Close