My friend Stephen wrote “It seems like the main bore piping is getting thinner and actually leaking bellow the ocean floor. It is looking like it is time to find a comfortable hole to crawl into.”
This report was written by someone who knows whereof he speaks. Makes a change!
In the first part of my post “BP Deepwater horizon, Macondo Well Blowout and what we are facing in the Gulf.” I tried to address the mechanics of the general well situation and explain some of terminology of the oil and gas industry. I also tried to lay out some of the various “plans” that were going to happen in the near future at the time of writing. I received a lot of thank you’s from people who took away a greater understanding of what was happening which I am very grateful for and hope that many more did gain understanding.
Most if Not all of those plans have come to pass, there have also been several other developments. In this post I will update the situation as I see it and as I can conclude from the disjointed trickle of information that has been released and which has not been made fully clear to the public.
In my opinion BP and our Govt have not been forthcoming about what is really is going on with this well and the situation we will likely face. Understandably they would not want to create panic, but we also need to prepare for this oil leak getting worse, ignoring the reality that there is good chance it will get worse leaves us vulnerable. Just like we shutter up before a hurricane we should be preparing now because we know that if we don’t, we are going to sustain far more damage than if we did.
I’m not going to get into the oil remediation aspect or the control of the already released oil nor the politics involved in the overall situation other than to say we need to prepare for the worst and should be doing that now. I want to cover the mechanics of what is going on now at the well subsea and what has happened and what the results tell us. Since we are not getting very much clear information about what those results or lack of results mean, I think it’s important for everyone to know what is happening and the possibilities of what may come.
As you have probably seen and maybe feel yourselves, there are several things that do not appear to make sense regarding the actions of attack against the well. Don’t feel bad, there is much that doesn’t make sense even to professionals unless you take into account some important variables that we are not being told about. There seems to me to be a reluctance to face what cannot be termed anything less than grim circumstances in my opinion. There certainly is a reluctance to inform us regular people and all we have really gotten is a few dots here and there…in this post I hope to connect some of those dots and show where we are headed…
First of all…set aside all your thoughts of plugging the well and stopping it from blowing out oil using any method from the top down. Plugs, big valves to just shut it off, pinching the pipe closed, installing a new bop or lmrp, shooting any epoxy in it, top kills with mud etc etc etc….forget that, it won’t be happening..it’s done and over. In fact actually opening up the well at the subsea source and allowing it to gush more is not only exactly what has happened, it was probably necessary, or so they think anyway.
So you have to ask WHY? Why make it worse?…there really can only be one answer and that answer does not bode well for all of us. It’s really an inescapable conclusion at this point, unless you want to believe that every Oil and Gas professional involved suddenly just forgot everything they know or woke up one morning and drank a few big cups of stupid and got assigned to directing the response to this catastrophe. Nothing makes sense unless you take this into account, but after you do…you will see the “sense” behind what has happened and what is happening. That conclusion is this:
The well bore structure is compromised “Down hole”.
That is something which is a “Worst nightmare” conclusion to reach…