Job Surge Boosts Economic Outlook

Employment has a slight rise, lay-offs see a decrease, college grads smile? Reuters reports:

A surprise surge in private-sector employment last month to its highest level on record provided the most bullish signal in months that the U.S. economy is on the mend.

“Sometimes numbers come as bolts from the blue; this is one of them,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.

Private employers added 297,000 jobs in December, triple the median estimate by economists and up from the gain of 92,000 in November, an ADP Employer Services report, whose data goes back to 2000, showed on Wednesday.

The report undercut the prices of the U.S. Treasury securities, and helped the U.S. dollar gain against the yen and the euro. U.S. stocks opened lower though they did pare losses after the jobs news.

[Continues at Reuters]

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  • mrtastycakes

    I’ll believe it when I’m employed.

  • mrtastycakes

    I’ll believe it when I’m employed.

  • mrtastycakes

    I’ll believe it when I’m employed.

  • mrtastycakes

    I’ll believe it when I’m employed.

    • Liam_McGonagle

      You’re right to be suspicious, Mrtastycakes. This “report” is a fucking sham.

      While just how big a sham remains to be seen, my guess is that they actually added only like 10,000 jobs, not 297,000.

      Let’s take this as an opportunity as a teachable moment for the public. I’ll entitle it “How to Read a Fucking Sham of An ADP Report.”

      First of all, this is a preliminary # from ADP, not an independently reviewed or audited statistic from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In fact, it’s out only 2 working days after the end of the period it discusses, so expect major changes.

      However, even more misleadingly, this # is not adjusted for 2 HUGEly relevant facts:
      1. Seasonal variation. ‘Course December typically has higher employment in service sector. That’s when Xmas and Hanukah in full swing, dumbass. That’s why the BLS adjusts #’s seasonally in its releases.

      2. The size of the work force is growing as young ‘uns graduate from College.

      I eagerly await the final BLS report, but my preliminary guess is that, all things considered, we actually added only 10,000 jobs, or about 0.01%. Which is, in effect, a rounding error. Someone over at ADP could’ve fuckin’ sneezed and had a greater effect on the figures reported here.

      https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B0z0Wboesi8MNmY3MWY1N2YtZWU0MS00NDRlLWExYTUtYjk1NmZmNzFlOTY1&hl=en

      • Liam_McGonagle

        P.S. Thanks for posting this, Amanda. I’d been feeling under the weather and almost didn’t have the energy to go out in search of bullshit statistical manipulation myself!

      • Hadrian999

        I’d like to see a report that references all those things plus wages adjusted for inflation compared to 30 years ago

        • Liam_McGonagle

          Say, that’s an excellent idear for the next post.

          Just for kicks, though, here’s some prelim. results: Total “reported compensation” for the employees has indeed gone up since 1980, even considering inflation. By about 13.5%.

          HOWEVER, to leave it there would gloss over two big distorting factors:
          #1. There are increasing disparities among employees. Remember when we looked at the years 2000 through 2008 we saw income reported for tax for the richest 5% grow by 20% while the median filer shrank by 17%. Unfortunately, I don’t think I have an analysis of compensation stratified by income level for any year, let alone the specific years 1980 through 2010. Not sure I how I can get at that, in order to be more specific.

          http://dystopiadiaries.blogspot.com/2010/11/do-tax-cuts-for-richest-2-help-or-hurt.html

          #2. By far and away the largest increase in compensation has been for insurance premiums–annual increase of about 1% to 1.7% PER ANNUM, versus less than 0.3% for wages. Basically insurance companies are sucking up at LEAST 600% as much as the productive economy. Fucking vampires.

          And of course, as we all know, insurance companies don’t make a profit by paying out claims. So I have some real suspicion about the “value” being provided for all those extra insurance premiums.

          https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Akz0Wboesi8MdGFwZnN2M1hISENtYW92dVdpM0toZFE&hl=en

          This can be complimicated analysis, so I may take a while working through this, but the prelims are very interesting indeed.

  • Liam_McGonagle

    You’re right to be suspicious, Mrtastycakes. This “report” is a fucking sham.

    While just how big a sham remains to be seen, my guess is that they actually added only like 10,000 jobs, not 297,000.

    Let’s take this as an opportunity as a teachable moment for the public. I’ll entitle it “How to Read a Fucking Sham of An ADP Report.”

    First of all, this is a preliminary # from ADP, not an independently reviewed or audited statistic from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In fact, it’s out only 2 working days after the end of the period it discusses, so expect major changes.

    However, even more misleadingly, this # is not adjusted for 2 HUGEly relevant facts:
    1. Seasonal variation. ‘Course December typically has higher employment in service sector. That’s when Xmas and Hanukah in full swing, dumbass. That’s why the BLS adjusts #’s seasonally in its releases.

    2. The size of the work force is growing as young ‘uns graduate from College.

    I eagerly await the final BLS report, but my preliminary guess is that, all things considered, we actually added only 10,000 jobs, or about 0.01%. Which is, in effect, a rounding error. Someone over at ADP could’ve fuckin’ sneezed and had a greater effect on the figures reported here.

    https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B0z0Wboesi8MNmY3MWY1N2YtZWU0MS00NDRlLWExYTUtYjk1NmZmNzFlOTY1&hl=en

  • Anonymous

    P.S. Thanks for posting this, Amanda. I’d been feeling under the weather and almost didn’t have the energy to go out in search of bullshit statistical manipulation myself!

  • Anonymous

    I heard the homeless man with the golden radio voice got a job. Good for him!
    I nice to hear that someone is doing better.
    Gee, I’d like to rejoin the ranks of brain numb corporate drones too. Its what I live for……

  • GoodDoktorBad

    I heard the homeless man with the golden radio voice got a job. Good for him!
    I nice to hear that someone is doing better.
    Gee, I’d like to rejoin the ranks of brain numb corporate drones too. Its what I live for……

  • 5by5

    Actually, the last quarter marked the lowest number of new layoffs since 1998, when we were adding roughly 300,000 jobs per month, so this is about right.

    In fact, because the Obama Administration revised the rules to make them actually include MORE people who’ve been laid off and to keep counting them for longer, these numbers are probably the most correct figures in more than 3 decades.

    I’m the first to smack Obama when he pusses out and doesn’t stand up for Liberal ideals, and the stimulus SHOULD have been bigger as economists like Paul Krugman and others suggested, as well as needing to push more public works projects, but these gains are still a result of his stimulus package.

    Of course you can set your watch to the amount of time it’ll take Republicans in the CURRENT Congress to take credit for an improved economy that they had absolutely nothing to do with, and which they did their utmost to destroy.

  • 5by5

    Actually, the last quarter marked the lowest number of new layoffs since 1998, when we were adding roughly 300,000 jobs per month, so this is about right.

    In fact, because the Obama Administration revised the rules to make them actually include MORE people who’ve been laid off and to keep counting them for longer, these numbers are probably the most correct figures in more than 3 decades.

    I’m the first to smack Obama when he pusses out and doesn’t stand up for Liberal ideals, and the stimulus SHOULD have been bigger as economists like Paul Krugman and others suggested, as well as needing to push more public works projects, but these gains are still a result of his stimulus package.

    Of course you can set your watch to the amount of time it’ll take Republicans in the CURRENT Congress to take credit for an improved economy that they had absolutely nothing to do with, and which they did their utmost to destroy.

  • 5by5

    See, the thing is, this too is true.

    Less layoffs means business is finally getting off it’s ass, but 40 years of Republican policy idiocy still yields the following:

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40930573/ns/us_news-life/

    And it’s completely irrational to expect us to dig ourselves out of that within a mere 2 years — especially when we’re led by a moderate Republican like Barack Obama, and the nitwits actually IN the Republican Party have gone batshit insane.

    The Republicans campaigned promising to reduce the debt by $100 million within the first year. Instead they gave rich people a tax cut that ADDED $900 billion to the debt, and are trying in vain to eliminate the Health Care plan, which even though it was half-assed without a public option, still reduces the debt buy over $100 million.

    So to recap. Democrats actually succeed at doing the thing Republicans promise to do, and get bounced out of office for their troubles by a bunch of rank morons who listen to Glenn Beck more than is remotely healthy. Meanwhile Republicans make things 9 times worse, and get elected.

    America is retarded, and is about to get the government it deserves.

  • 5by5

    See, the thing is, this too is true.

    Less layoffs means business is finally getting off it’s ass, but 40 years of Republican policy idiocy still yields the following:

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/40930573/ns/us_news-life/

    And it’s completely irrational to expect us to dig ourselves out of that within a mere 2 years — especially when we’re led by a moderate Republican like Barack Obama, and the nitwits actually IN the Republican Party have gone batshit insane.

    The Republicans campaigned promising to reduce the debt by $100 million within the first year. Instead they gave rich people a tax cut that ADDED $900 billion to the debt, and are trying in vain to eliminate the Health Care plan, which even though it was half-assed without a public option, still reduces the debt buy over $100 million.

    So to recap. Democrats actually succeed at doing the thing Republicans promise to do, and get bounced out of office for their troubles by a bunch of rank morons who listen to Glenn Beck more than is remotely healthy. Meanwhile Republicans make things 9 times worse, and get elected.

    America is retarded, and is about to get the government it deserves.

  • http://twitter.com/ergblerg Thomas Paine

    Experts say this report is a sham and that even “official” government reports will show at most 150k jobs added, which is probably still propaganda.

  • http://twitter.com/ergblerg Thomas Paine

    Experts say this report is a sham and that even “official” government reports will show at most 150k jobs added, which is probably still propaganda.

  • Jason

    So i noticed that despite the first paragraph mentioning that this was only in the private sector, the full article not one paragraph afterwards states that it was public AND private sectors and that the report is only EXPECTED to contain those figures. Also it’s very vague on what sort of jobs were created, although it contains a picture of college students filling out applications, this is hardly the likely result. It’s more likely that most of the jobs were created in military sectors or sectors that directly support the military, since that’s where all of our money is going anyway.

    Secondly, i strongly advise anyone to avoid blindly supporting the creation of jobs, more is not the answer, we need to take what we have and make it efficient, but our market no longer values efficiency or innovation, and all progressive inventions are bought out by corporations who intentionally keep them off the market. We need to encourage the progress and maturity of business and actually enforce anti-trust laws. Competition no longer increases utility but allows the already large conglomerate corporations to simply use advertising to destroy all of their competition and continue to make inefficient products at ridiculously high prices and pay employees nothing while big wigs walk away with million dollar paychecks.

    Until we subdue corporate america and give a voice back to the people, until we stop allowing lies to be the majority of what is bought and sold across the developed world, until we can trust each other again, until we know ourselves again, NOTHING can save us from the inevitable worldwide slavery that will be perpetuated by the rich with military interests. If you have the opinion that much like in the movie Wall-E, you will be overjoyed when all your ability to support yourself is replaced by machines and corporations, you will be sadly disappointed when the plug is pulled and you’re left to crawl for your next meal, and your phone doesn’t work.

  • Jason

    So i noticed that despite the first paragraph mentioning that this was only in the private sector, the full article not one paragraph afterwards states that it was public AND private sectors and that the report is only EXPECTED to contain those figures. Also it’s very vague on what sort of jobs were created, although it contains a picture of college students filling out applications, this is hardly the likely result. It’s more likely that most of the jobs were created in military sectors or sectors that directly support the military, since that’s where all of our money is going anyway.

    Secondly, i strongly advise anyone to avoid blindly supporting the creation of jobs, more is not the answer, we need to take what we have and make it efficient, but our market no longer values efficiency or innovation, and all progressive inventions are bought out by corporations who intentionally keep them off the market. We need to encourage the progress and maturity of business and actually enforce anti-trust laws. Competition no longer increases utility but allows the already large conglomerate corporations to simply use advertising to destroy all of their competition and continue to make inefficient products at ridiculously high prices and pay employees nothing while big wigs walk away with million dollar paychecks.

    Until we subdue corporate america and give a voice back to the people, until we stop allowing lies to be the majority of what is bought and sold across the developed world, until we can trust each other again, until we know ourselves again, NOTHING can save us from the inevitable worldwide slavery that will be perpetuated by the rich with military interests. If you have the opinion that much like in the movie Wall-E, you will be overjoyed when all your ability to support yourself is replaced by machines and corporations, you will be sadly disappointed when the plug is pulled and you’re left to crawl for your next meal, and your phone doesn’t work.

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  • Hadrian999

    I’d like to see a report that references all those things plus wages adjusted for inflation compared to 30 years ago

  • Liam_McGonagle

    Say, that’s an excellent idear for the next post.

    Just for kicks, though, here’s some prelim. results: Total “reported compensation” for the employees has indeed gone up since 1980, even considering inflation. By about 13.5%.

    HOWEVER, to leave it there would gloss over two big distorting factors:
    #1. There are increasing disparities among employees. Remember when we looked at the years 2000 through 2008 we saw income reported for tax for the richest 5% grow by 20% while the median filer shrank by 17%. Unfortunately, I don’t think I have an analysis of compensation stratified by income level for any year, let alone the specific years 1980 through 2010. Not sure I how I can get at that, in order to be more specific.

    http://dystopiadiaries.blogspot.com/2010/11/do-tax-cuts-for-richest-2-help-or-hurt.html

    #2. By far and away the largest increase in compensation has been for insurance premiums–annual increase of about 1% to 1.7% PER ANNUM, versus less than 0.3% for wages. Basically insurance companies are sucking up at LEAST 600% as much as the productive economy. Fucking vampires.

    And of course, as we all know, insurance companies don’t make a profit by paying out claims. So I have some real suspicion about the “value” being provided for all those extra insurance premiums.

    https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0Akz0Wboesi8MdGFwZnN2M1hISENtYW92dVdpM0toZFE&hl=en

    This can be complimicated analysis, so I may take a while working through this, but the prelims are very interesting indeed.

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