Facebook About to Lose 80% of Users

Facebook LikeFacebook users abandoning the ubiquitous sharing site in droves sounds unlikely but a serious academic study suggests it’s going to happen, reports TIME:

Facebook’s growth will eventually come to a quick end, much like an infectious disease that spreads rapidly and suddenly dies, say Princeton researchers who are using diseases to model the life cycles of social media.

Disease models can be used to understand the mass adoption and subsequent flight from online social networks, researchers at Princeton’s Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering say in a study released Jan. 17. The study has not been peer-reviewed. Updating traditional models on disease spread to assume that “recovery” requires contact with a nondiseased member — i.e., a nonuser of Facebook (“recovered” member of the population) — researchers predicted that Facebook would see a rapid decline, causing the site to lose 80% of its peak user base between 2015 and 2017.

Basically, Facebook users will lose interest in Facebook over time as their peers lose interest..

[continues at TIME]


Majestic is gadfly emeritus.

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  • jose chung

    so it seems there is a cure for the so-called zombie apocalypse. groovy.

  • Rhoid Rager

    It’s nice to know that we need academia to tell us humanity has its own immune system against viral memetic filth like Facebook.

    • gustave courbet

      Sadly, I think its probably just the modern consumer’s attention-span and thirst for novelty that is to blame, and not some rejections of the viral memetic filth, itself.

      • Rhoid Rager

        By individual, yes, perhaps. But a phagocyte probably doesn’t get the big picture, either.

        • gustave courbet


  • BuzzCoastin

    FB is the digital Xmas letter
    and a place to keep in touch with people you normally ignore
    it’s a place to pose
    and a place to be survivaled

    it may crash &burn like My Space
    but something like it will take it’s place

    • kowalityjesus

      maybe a government-based service, hahah. over my dead body.

      • BuzzCoastin

        fb, google et al
        are Homeland gov bitches
        just like qq, baidu et all
        are PRC gov bitches
        but when Der Homeland does it
        it’s freedom & capitalism
        when the commies do it
        it’s totalitarianism & communism

  • Simon Valentine

    the dead decompose
    every action is followed by and not necessarily connected to another action
    why differentiate?

    • Rhoid Rager

      for/by/with convenience

      • Simon Valentine

        heh heh always good to know people don’t 100% treat my questions as rhetorical :)

  • HCE

    Different article, same content. 2nd time this week…

  • Rhoid Rager

    What convinces you there isn’t? Timing is the issue at hand…

  • http://www.evolutionarylandscapes.net/ Jeremy Johnson

    Most of my blog projects have suffered due to the mimetic outbreak that is Facebook. That being said, maybe there’s something to the push-pull of F.B. as a center of gravity, amplifying other media forces before ultimately becoming a detriment to communication and novel connectivity (I’m finding Twitter to be more valuable in that regard). So, yeah, cheers to the end of F.B. It’ll be nice to get out of that Black Hole.

  • kowalityjesus

    Facebook itsn’t even good as an archival service either because it all disappears after a short time. Its a player in the relentless cult of novelty, and it’s fucked. Give me something classic, not necessarily new.